Comments on: This Movie Better Make Some Money!

By: Ann Handley

Ann Handley — Thu, 17 Aug 2006 00:10:25 +0000

I dunno…I’ll have to ask her. But she was all pumped up about the viral email — so it’s definitely on her radar. And that’s exactly it, Mario….she is *not* the typical demographic.
So tonight, just for fun, I asked my 14-year-old son if he had heard of SoaP, and his sole comment was, “Yeah, of course. But I hate the logo, so I don’t want to see it.”
Right. But he *knew* the logo…so it’s on his radar, too.
So — 14-year-old boys in New England to 50-year-old women in Florida. That’s pretty amazing reach. The test will be…who will go see it?

By: Mario Sundar

Mario Sundar — Wed, 16 Aug 2006 23:40:39 +0000

Wow! That’s interesting…
Maybe, what Michael said is happening, and if SoaP is reaching out beyond (what I presumed would be the male MySpace target audience), all the better.
Important question: Has the viral email convinced her to watch the movie?
Mario

By: Ann Handley

Ann Handley — Wed, 16 Aug 2006 18:38:27 +0000

If it doesn’t make a splash, it won’t be for lack of buzz.
My oldest sister is in her mid-50s and lives in Florida. She does email and knows her way around the Internet, sort of, but I wouldn’t describe her as blog-savvy. Yet earlier today, she sent me a “You’ve Got Snakes”! viral email….WOW. I’d expect it from Mack or you, Mario…but the fact that the word reached my sister in central Florida. That’s impressive….

By: Mario Sundar

Mario Sundar — Wed, 16 Aug 2006 16:25:59 +0000

Michael,
Good point. Particularly since the target demographic is predominantly male – 15 to 25.
Maybe the opening weekend will be bigger than I envision, and I guess that’ll be proof that the “tipping point” was reached.

By: Michael Wagner

Michael Wagner — Tue, 15 Aug 2006 16:42:52 +0000

Mario, how does a “Tipping Point” model figure into your estimation? That is to say, some bloggers might have a sphere of influence beyond the addressable market of the blogosphere. Some of them might even be of “Paul Revere quality” to pick up on Gladwell’s illustration. Could they rally an unexpected non-blogging segment of the market to see the movie?
Just thinking out loud.
Fun to muse on.

By: Mario Sundar

Mario Sundar — Tue, 15 Aug 2006 15:46:03 +0000

Mack,
I believe it’ll definitely break even over the course of its entire run. However, what SoaP has shown is a brave-new-way for movie marketers to cater to their target audience.
For ex. a case in point will have to be the unspoken success of “Step-Up” that released last week to open at 2nd spot. Why do you think it did so well?: Myspace and marketing-to-the-choir.
Times have changed and movie marketing is never going to be the same again.
Mario

By: Mack Collier

Mack Collier — Tue, 15 Aug 2006 13:58:57 +0000

Mario I agree that I find it hard to imagine 50 million active blogs out there. But at the same time, bloggers are extremely passionate about an idea that they get behind.
So I think we could see an opening weekend of anywhere from $5-50 million for SoaP. Of course the interesting story will be if SoaP hits at least $30 million this weekend and breaks even, how will the mainstream media spin it next week? Since they are NOT pleased that this movie’s buzz originated online, I wouldn’t be suprised if they credited another source with the movie’s strong opening.