MediaBuyerPlanner: Big metro dailies will bounce back, says Deutsche Bank Securities analyst Paul Ginocchio. By 2012, earnings will turn positive again, he says, though he warns not to expect the high margins newspapers pulled in the 1990s.
“We never had margins like that before, and they’re not coming back.” Ginocchio told the Inland Press Association at its annual meeting in Chicago this week (via Adweek).
Before newspapers reach positive margins again, the industry will see some permanent changes to the business model. Newspapers will have to continue to wring costs out of operations, and will likely begin to explore the outsourcing of printing and delivery.
The steep and painful drop-off in real estate advertising that has so hurt many newspapers is cyclical and will come back, Ginocchio says.
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