Comments on: Glorifying The Gut

By: Gene Tenberg

Gene Tenberg — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 18:10:25 +0000

Interesting discussion; for the past few years my partners and I have bought a great deal of commercial real estate. He has arrived at his decisions through “back of envelope” and gut instincts. I am very quantitative and built very sophisticated analytics tools to help with investment decision making.
Success? We were most successful on those projects when we effectively complemented each other’s styles.
I’d be nowhere without his “gut” and, I suspect, he’d tell you his decision making would be substantially less confident without my decision support tools.

By: Dani Nordin

Dani Nordin — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 16:22:24 +0000

I think there’s room for both, and different approaches work for different people. It’s important to have the numbers to back up your decisions, but it’s equally important, I think, to pay attention to that inner voice that tells you that something is right or wrong with what you’re thinking of doing.
In my business, I do a lot of intuitive thinking – what direction feels best, where should I go next, should I attend that networking event? But I also follow and keep track of what works, and use that to inform my decisionmaking.

By: Paul Barsch

Paul Barsch — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 14:14:33 +0000

Roy, thank you for weighing in on this subject. Like you, I believe marketers would have more power and influence in the organization if we could back up our gut feelings and intuition with hard facts/numbers. It’s important to get away from, “I think this will work”, or “it just feels right,” to… “I’ve reviewed the data, ran the numbers and here’s my take…”

By: Roy Young

Roy Young — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 18:01:04 +0000

Very thoughtful and provocative post, Paul. And great discussion.
Considering the decisions most marketers make and the battles we fight INSIDE our organizations, I believe we have to be transparent and systematic in our decision making processes. This requires facts and data.
The reason Finance has more prestige and influence in organizations than Marketing is that the analysts put numbers in a model and the computer spits out the answers.
Yes, financial models are full of assumptions, which the “gut” produces, but ultimately there is a repeatable and quantiative process that leads to repeatable decision making.
We marketers need more, not less, of this.
Of course, much in business is intuitive and many of the great business leaders make decisions from the gut. We also tend to motivate others with emotion and images. So, when we communicate or argue for the support we need, we often need to leave the data behind and move to metaphors and images that resonate with our target market.
The Heath brothers in Made to Stick have great lessons on this.
Still, the bottom line is most marketers searching for power, influence and business impact today need facts and data to make convincing arguments that will convince others we are right.

By: Paul Barsch

Paul Barsch — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 14:45:37 +0000

Glenn, thank you for commenting.
I agree with you that in most instances, a combination approach of intuition and data-based decision works best. There are, however, many instances where computers can find hidden patterns and analyze data much better than the human mind. Specifically I am thinking about fraud detection (combing through millions of financial transactions), scanning call detail records (CDRs) to find patterns, point of sale data for product affinities etc…).

By: Glenn Gow

Glenn Gow — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 00:51:30 +0000

Paul, the advice we give to our clients is “collect data, but trust in your gut”.
I believe that data alone is never enough. As we become better and better at collecting and analyzing data, the data becomes more and more valuable. However, the “gut” we talk about is really the unconscious mind. The mind that can see, feel and analyze information that we can’t collect in a spreadsheet or database.
We will never be able to collect enough data to make data-only decisions, so why think we can make data-only decisions. We should make decisions based on good data, combined with information from our unconscious mind.
If you’d like to see more of my thoughts on this, you can visit this link to my post on “Avoid Statistical Significance”
http://www.achievemarketleadership.com/?p=60

By: Paul Barsch

Paul Barsch — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 21:23:59 +0000

Aline and Ted, thank you for commenting.
Aline, gut decision making can be based on experience, but in some instances it can also be based on superstition, “it just feels right”, or a physiological reaction like back spasms or headaches. I’ll even throw in divine guidance for those who believe in it!
You do, however hit the nail on the head that the best approach is a complimentary joining of intuition/experience and data-based decisioning. They’re not mutually exclusive.

By: Aline Christiansen

Aline Christiansen — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 21:10:06 +0000

I think even when people say “gut” feeling they do refer to educated intuition and some form on prior knowledge base to use to make a decision. I have always found that “gut” decisions are effective but always know that there is a mountain of knowledge or experience behind it.
Nowadays there are so many data points and so much data around that it can drag you and your decisions to painful lengths.
People often get bogged down with data and sometimes lose the big picture.
Having said that, data is becoming more plentiful and more targeted and more to the point – therefore ignoring data is not necessarily the best strategy.
I truly believe that the question should not be whether to use data instead of gut or visa versa, the real question is how do you integrate both into good decision making process.

By: Ted Mininni

Ted Mininni — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 21:02:43 +0000

Good post, Paul. I actually think you end up making an eloquent case for acting with both factual data analysis and gut thinking. Yes, business should give more weight to using solid data when making decisions, but as everyone seems to have concluded, there are definitely times to go with one’s gut instincts. However, as you point out, shooting from the hip and going with one’s instincts without understanding what the data is telling us, can lead to disastrous results. Thanks for reminding us about that.

By: Paul Barsch

Paul Barsch — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 20:41:57 +0000

Lewis, thank you for commenting.
Decision making is both art and science. I argue that in the business world, too often decision making is based on experience and intuition, as opposed to as Jim Collins would say, “letting the data speak.”
From my previous post about the advance of technology (specifically decision support) and the fact that data volumes are increasing in some cases exponentially, I believe “thinking by the numbers” will take a larger piece of the decisioning pie.
That said, there will always be a place for “gut thinking.”

By: Lewis Green

Lewis Green — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 20:15:47 +0000

Paul,
Thought-provoking post. I am in Harry’s camp on this; however, we also look at the data, when appropriate. At the end of the day, however, if my experiences and accrued business knowledge add up to something different than what the data says, I’m going with my gut every time.

By: Claire Ratushny

Claire Ratushny — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 15:36:47 +0000

. . .”Not to mention what Theo Epstein has done with the Red Sox in 4+ years…”
Thanks for the mention of this, Paul. We’re not breathing in New England right now–not until the Red Sox win the World Series. Here’s hoping with all of our might. . .and while I’m at it: here’s hoping our beloved Pats win the Super Bowl, too.

By: Paul Barsch

Paul Barsch — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 15:26:52 +0000

Claire, in the B2B space it’s much easier (as you point out) to do account based marketing and get a better pulse on customer needs.
Data driven approaches work well in B2B world, but really take off in the B2C world (volume based businesses).

By: Claire Ratushny

Claire Ratushny — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 15:07:30 +0000

I should have added one other thing, Paul. The closer the marketer is to the customers, and having a direct conduit to them and speaking with them is invaluable, the better and more reliable your gut intuition becomes.
And as you just articulated, Paul: “In general, for the business and popular press, I’d like to see more glorification (case studies and articles) of “thinking by the numbers”. I can’t argue with that statement at all.

By: Paul Barsch

Paul Barsch — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 15:05:25 +0000

Direct response marketer, you make a good point. I almost forgot to include a mention of Money Ball, by Michael Lewis which details how the Oakland A’s turned around their small market franchise by focusing on a data driven approach to prospecting and signing baseball talent.
Not to mention what Theo Epstein has done with the Red Sox in 4+ years…

By: Paul Barsch

Paul Barsch — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 14:58:58 +0000

Harry and Claire, thank you for commenting. Following your gut (intuition and experience) is a valid decision making process, I’m just for complementing the process with a data-driven approach.
There are some instances where a data driven approach will invalidate our gut thinking, and othertimes there may not be enough time or data to validate our gut thinking.
In general, for the business and popular press, I’d like to see more glorification (case studies and articles) of “thinking by the numbers”.

By: direct response marketing

direct response marketing — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 14:47:32 +0000

Interestingly enough, Major league baseball front offices used to rely on scouts and thier gut feelings on baseball prospects. But what has happened lately is that they are relying more on statistical information in making baseball decisions because, the data don’t lie. No matter what potential they might see.

By: Claire Ratushny

Claire Ratushny — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 12:55:37 +0000

I understand where you’re coming from on your post, Paul. In business, as in society, we seem to be increasingly making decisions on emotion, rather than considering the facts or data. Businesses need to quash that as new people enter their companies and teach them to study the available data, provided it’s good information, of course, and make decisions based on that data. Having said that, as people move through corporate echelons, they intuit much from experience, as Harry pointed out. For my part, I believe that all of the data in the universe has to be balanced by our gut in our decision-making processes–once we really understand our businesses. Rarely is anything totally black and white. Thanks for a thoughtful post, Paul.

By: Harry hallman

Harry hallman — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 12:33:58 +0000

Hmmm. Interesting question. It is one I faced in the late 70s when the business I started was growing fast. I needed to hire so I thought that I should read some business books (I was on the creative side) to see what the experts said. What they said at that time was never trust your gut. So, I stuck to the facts on my next two hires. They were the worse hires in my career.
After that, I started getting the facts but following my gut. The reality is that most often gut feelings are based on facts. The facts you obtain through your life experience, similar situations and from what you read, hear and see. We are given this trait so we can survive.
I say get the facts and follow your intuition. It is interesting that the examples of “heroes” you mention Captain Kirk , Indiana Jones, Rambo and Tony Soprano all are extremely experienced people who are well trained in their craft. So their “gut” feels are more than decisions based on undisciplined over-reaction.
Next time my spaceship is attacked by hostiles from Centuria Prime I want Kirk and his “gut” feeling running the show. There just might not be enough time to run a data analysis of the situation before we are vaporized.