When times are bad the future is uncertain. But, quite honestly, when times are good the future is *just* as uncertain. The only way to predict the future is to create the future.
Here’s how…
One of the best pieces of advice on planning and strategy-building I’ve ever come across, I found in 
The Unofficial Guide to Power Managing, (UK) by Alan Weiss, Ph.D. (not to be confused with MarketingProfs founder Allen Weiss).
When planning and creating strategy for the future, instead of starting from where you are now and working forward, start with a picture of the future and figure out what it took to get you there.
When you start from where you are today, you make the assumption that the people, tools, systems, and products will grow at the proper rate and in the direction of your ultimate goal. That’s a big assumption. Especially if your plans call for innovation, or changes from where you are now.
As Alan points out in the book, “The current organization’s mode of operating… been designed and reinforced to help maintain and solidify the status quo. Although there might be some flexibility, the new organization is now within its paradigm.”
Instead of assuming you can grow what you have into that future scenario, start with a picture of the future – working backward – to figure out what it took to get you there. Ask, “What must be changed to create this vision?”
If this is too abstract for you or leadership to imagine, do the exercise of writing a press release from the future. Write the headline and article as if you are at that 1, 5 or 10-year future state and the national newspaper has featured your success story on its front page. The details of “how you got there” IS your strategy.
This doesn’t necessarily mean everything that exists now – your people, your systems – needs to be scrapped. However, don’t start with the assumption that they are all you need… or will take you there without a planned approach.
Graphic adapted from what appears in The Unofficial Guide To Power Management.
Yes! Yes! Yes! You hit it squarely, Paul!
Paul,
Not so different from other strategists here in the U.S. for whom the mantra us “always look for the next big thing.”
Paul,
Not so different from other strategists here in the U.S. for whom the mantra is “always look for the next big thing.”
Lewis… yes, but… the emphasis is on ‘being’ there and figuring out what you will have needed to get there versus… Next big thing here we come.
Subtle I know, but a big difference in actual approach.
Paul, I love the idea of the press release from the future. A 3-5 year press release sounds reasonable, especially in these turbulent times–there are just too many variables in my opinion for anything further than that.
Thanks for the kind words.
Alan Weiss
“Create what you need”
Super post Paul.
To create your preferred future requires a kind of ownership that leaders are hesitant to accept.
It is easier to believe you are managing risk down by going for incremental growth.
In part this post reminds me of what Peter Block has to say in “The Answer to How Is Yes.”
What future are you saying “yes to?
Thanks for stirring things up Paul.
Keep creating…a future worth committing to,
Mike
Thanks for the reactions! Keep ‘em coming…
Wow! Just like a High School student setting his carer path. What a novel idea to treat a business like a person, Oh! I guess the government already does that.
I have always advised planners to think of a point in future and work backwards,step by step. It’s the best way to create a plan. But very few actually do it: They have difficulty breaking from traditional thinking.
The future press release is a great technique.