Mack,

Do you think it matters if some of these platforms never become truly mainstream? Doesn't power now lie in the passionate niches?

If it makes our lives better (for 1 million people or 100 million), shouldn't that be considered a success?

I ask not to prod, but because I honestly have no idea. Where does the threshold lie between success and failure in the online world?

(P.S. sorry for the litany of questions. The last one pretty much sums them all up.)

Ryan none of these tools 'have' to go mainstream. But some of the services, such as Twitter, are so cool that I'd like to see what would happen when they have 50 million users. When companies began using the service to provide instant customer support, etc. I'd like to see technology catch up so the masses can painlessly create and run video blogs, because I want to see what type of content is out there when another 50 million people suddenly are expressing themselves via video.

BTW I would not be surprised to see someone buy Twitter before the end of the year. Someone that will want to market it to the masses. The service itself will likely change, it could be that suddenly every 10th tweet is an advertisement, or that we pay for a premium version with no ads.

Mack,
The dangers of being on the bleeding edge are twofold:

We assume the rest of the world will never catch up.
We can bleed to death.

Twitter (and its brethren like Pownce, Jaiku, Seesmic, Qik, etc.) are going through their post-bounce malaise right now, where people start to question their value. But Twitter's sustained use among the shows that this type of service has real value, even if Twitter itself isn't the one that sticks.

Look at the technologies with the most mainstream juice: mobile phones, texting, video on the web and mobile video. Each has gone through its ups and downs. The s-curve of technology adoption applies. Twitter itself might fail. But I strongly suspect we'll see something like it among "ordinary folk" down the line.

Part of the problem is one of language. It's difficult to explain Twitter/Digg/Pownce/Jaiku/etc. in simple enough language that conveys exactly what it is *and* why it's so cool.

Microblogging? Ick.

Miniblogging? Yeech!

Small diary updates? Better, but certainly not "cool".

This is validation of the old "spouse test" writ large. If you can't explain it in simple language so your spouse understands, then you have a problem.

Michael great point about the language. I wonder if calling Twitter a micro-CHAT service might help it be understood by the masses. Not everyone knows 'how' to blog, but everyone knows how to chat.

BTW I was also trying to make the point that just because we think something is hot in social media, doesn't mean that everyone else has any idea that it exists. I am as bad as anyone for gushing about Twitter, but as Geoff's tweet above reminds us, there's only several hundred thousand people using twitter, not tens of millions.

Mack, your point about not seeing things like everyone else is very valid. When you spend your days immersed in social media, you forgot how new all this is to most people in the B2B world.

A lot of what gets us excited is the cool factor (as Michael mentions). People jump to using the tools without determining exactly what they're trying to get out of it.

I've had clients throw out the entire social media thing because one specific tactic didn't seem to bring results.

As with every emerging trend, so much of it is lead by the technology and the tools - the tactics. We need to help our clients figure out what the right tool is for their specific market and audience, as well as determine their organizational readiness for all this - the strategy.

(But it's all really cool isn't it?)

Working for a mainstream client, we often balance the wide vs. niche marketing net.

I truly believe that dabbling in the Social Media for scene for Geeks is what allows us to make it primetime for our target. We test out what feels addictive and then recommend it to our clients.

The beautiful thing about a lot of these 'bleeding edge' technologies is their cheap adoption rate. Our client funding risk is minimal yet the upsides are tremendous.

Mack-

Great post, it hit on exactly what I deal with every day covering social media for a B2B publication. I'd love to write about how great things like Twitter and Digg are and how they can help companies, but I'd have to first explain how no one uses banner ads anymore and what SEO means.

Unfortunately consumers are years behind the social media trends, and businesses are even further behind than they are. I fear by the time companies learn how to post a video on YouTube or create a Facebook account, it will be too late for a lot of the start-ups out there that could really serve them.

Unfortunately consumers are years behind the social media trends, and businesses are even further behind than they are.

Now, WHY might that be...? From my own personal perspective, I see many of these new tools the way I see books and movies -- the early adapters all rush to try to latest thing, and the rest of us sit back and wait to see what sustains its popularity (and in the vase of technology - usefulness) over time.

Everyone had their own passions - sports, personal growth, spirituality, social justice...where they prefer to spend their time. Technology seems, for most people, to be more tool than passion.

If twitter were introduced to me through my passion, would I be more likely to try it?

Barbara