Opinion, Analysis and News from MarketingProfs Opinion. Commentary. News.
BLOG HOME RSS/XMLBOOK CLUBMARKETING PROFS
   
 
Paul Barsch Paul Barsch   Bio
11.27.07

Are You Prepared for 2013?

stumbleupon digg del.icio.us

Some marketing executives believe the next five years will be similar to the last five years. That’s a dangerous assumption if you take into account the rapid growth rates of technology and data. In fact, there is every reason to believe that the next five years will bring profound changes to how we sell, market and service customers.

Two key factors will significantly impact marketing for B2B and B2C companies over the next five years. The first, Moore’s Law, states that the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two years. This means rapid growth for information technology (hardware specifically) but also loosely applies to software.

The second trend of note is the exponential growth of data. According to a Forrester Research report titled, “Data, Data Everywhere”, the volume of the world’s data doubles approximately every three years.

It seems like a marriage made in heaven: exponential growth of data volumes and the matching technology to collect, store, analyze and distribute intelligence across the enterprise. Easy right? Not so fast...

It’s important to note that exponential growth of data volumes and information technology can really sneak up on companies of all sizes. Let me paint you a vivid picture.

Ray Kurzweil, a well known scientist in the artificial intelligence arena describes the exponential growth of technology through his, “Law of Accelerating Returns.”

He says, “an analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).”

Chew on that one for a minute, if true—it’s profound.

You might think that other visionaries have a handle on what these exponential trends mean for our future, but even Gordon Moore, the creator of Moore’s Law, finds the impact of change staggering.

The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article titled, “Even an Intel Founder Can Still Be Impressed by Technology’s Pace.” In the article, author Lee Gomes cites Moore’s amazement with smaller and smaller disk drives, the miniaturization of mobile technology and how fast some search engines bring back relevant results. Gordon Moore is quoted as saying, “I am continually surprised by what people can do with all these things.”

Marketing professionals are often responsible for market trends and opportunities, understanding the impact of mega-themes, and steering our organization towards not only customer wants/needs of today, but also those of tomorrow.

If these trends hold true, and data and technology continue to show exponential growth, the next five years will challenge marketers to think differently about how we help our companies retain customers, grow wallet-share and find new revenue streams.

The only constant is change, and one thing we know; that tomorrow will not be like today. And the next five years won’t be anything like the last five.

OK big thinkers, it’s almost 2008. Peter Drucker once wisely said,

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

Assuming the rates of change for information technology and data will continue to grow exponentially, what are your suggestions to help your company or clients prepare and place the right bets to create the future?



Read more on this subject:
business data warehousing marketing marketing strategy trends


TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.mpdailyfix.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/12158

Comments

Very exciting and optimistic, Paul. Just how can we guarantee that the electricity will remain on to juice all this technology?

Time for a very concerted effort by all business to push for alternative, clean energy sources.

Posted by: Elaine Fogel | 11.27.07

Elaine, you bring up two good points. The first; optimism. I think there is a lot to be excited about, especially the changes that marketers will see in the next five years in how we can use collected data and technology to better sense and respond to customer needs.

The second point is about energy and resource utilization. I'm not going to pretend to be a scientist, but I do agree with you that renewable energy sources (such as solar) seem to offer us the best chance of a nearly unlimited source of energy.

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.27.07

Paul,

The acceleration of technology and the ramifications that brings with it, is both very exciting and a bit scary at the same time. Marketers can and will adapt and change just as quickly as they can. People aren't machines. I think you're right about this: in five years' time, we'll all be doing business quite differently. We'll see how much things have changed only by hindsight.

As you pointed out: the whole focus of marketers has to be on utilizing all of this wondrous technology and data to better understand and interface with the customer. Otherwise, it's all meaningless to companies and their management.

To answer the question at the end of your post: my hope is that faster, better data and technology will assist marketers to get closer to their customers. I suspect that a deeper level of interaction will result in dramatic changes and the repositioning of companies as well as their product or service offerings in some cases. And that could be the very thing that ensures marketshare and survival in the long run. Thanks for another strong post, Paul.

Posted by: Claire Ratushny | 11.27.07

Paul,

How fast we keep up with changing technology has little to do with the technology itself. What we must pay attention to is its use and impact on people--employees and customers--and then respond to their wants and needs. If we try to anticipate what our customers will do, we likely will make costly errors in judgment if we are not listening and paying close attention to their wants and needs.

Posted by: Lewis Green | 11.27.07

Claire, thank you for joining the conversation.

As to your comment about how marketers will adapt and change as quickly as we can, I'm concerned that we might not be "fast enough". We’re already behind the curve and face a steep climb.

Forrester recently published some research (on the B2B marketing side) that showed only half of their respondents are investing in technology to track and measure marketing efforts, and 57% of those respondents say, "reporting systems need more work."

Granted, B2C marketers are often slightly ahead of B2B marketers in technology adoption and utilization to better understand customers, so it’s not all doom and gloom. However, with exponential growth in data volumes and rapid changes in technology price/performance I’m concerned about our “readiness” for the future.

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.27.07

Hi Paul,

Provocative post.

Further anticipated slowdowns in the economy may force some companies to table implementing significant technology improvements to their companies for a while. You know, when times get tough, major capital expenditures get tabled. If companies large and small decide to take a "wait and see" approach in investing in new hardware, that might hamper significant change in some quarters. So, they would not enjoy the advantages of getting faster, better customer data. That would give the edge to their competitors that do invest now for the future. Of course, as a famous tagline goes: The future is now. Still, historically this is what happens. So then what?

Posted by: Ted Mininni | 11.27.07

Lewis, thank you for commenting.

I believe that we will , as you say, "respond to customer wants and needs" by taking advantage of the two exponential trends I've discussed above.

As you rightly point out, listening and paying close attention to customer needs is a key factor in our future success. We'll be able to better do that by leveraging data and technologies to understand customer behavior, develop customer strategies, and drive better interactions.

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.27.07

Ted, you bring up a great point.

With the global credit crunch and possible recession looming in the US, some companies may choose to table investments in people (hiring), improved processes, and newer information technologies. Each company will have to make that choice.

However, just as you do, I sense an opportunity here for those companies who see these two exponential trends and attempt to capitalize on them.

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.27.07

The amount and type of data is accumulating at an ever increasing pace. What is not increasing as quickly is the ability to digest, absorb, and analyze the data. It is no longer enough for marketers to respond to data as a way of meeting consumer needs, marketers need to develop consumer insight from data and create prodcuts, services, and strategies in a proactive fashion.

Posted by: Camille Schuster | 11.27.07

I think you bring up one of the single biggest problems for marketers today and in the future. However I also see this as a tremendous opportunity for new products and services.
Most of the new, make that all of the new products I have launched all started with a perceived problem and a series of “whys.”
Recently I met with one of top 40 artificial intelligence experts in the world, and he and I discussed the concern his group of AI thought leaders have as well.
I have a product /service solution and I am presently trying to gain an audience with Google, MSN, and or Yahoo…stay toned.

Posted by: mark allen roberts | 11.27.07

Camille and Mark, thank you for commenting.

Camille, when you say, "digest, absorb, and analyze the data" you are hitting the nail on the head. Those organizations that have the ability to collect, store, analyze data and act on the insights will be those who win in the next five years. Marketing needs to lead the charge!

Mark, looking forward to seeing your "out of the box" solution in the near future!

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.27.07

Great post!

My concerns are similar to Camille's. We can track and utilize so much data, but it's very hard to get it implemented, let alone get the clients making it useful to themselves.

I see such a strong need for services that help companies compile, digest, manage, and put the data to use. It's difficult for all but the biggest to do the web marketing basics well on a regular basis, let alone dig in and experiment. The bulk of small and mid-size businesses will get left behind if there aren't the tools to help them manage the technologies they do implement.

Posted by: Sara Rasco | 11.27.07

Paul,

Citing what Camille and Sara have said: you know I've commented on this issue before on your previous posts. Data is great if it's meaningful or relevant, streamlined and not so voluminous it can't be effectively digested and acted on within a relevant time frame. The temptation in many companies is that of report overkill. No one has the inclination to even take a stab at reading all of this data to find the few pearls it might contain. Data overkill is deadly and has the opposite effect it is meant to have.

Posted by: Claire Ratushny | 11.27.07

Sara, thank you for taking the time to comment.

The two exponential trends I mention in this post have the ability to overwhelm even the most savvy businesses (small, medium or large). There are plenty of medium and large sized businesses, that I'm aware of, that use technology (specifically business intelligence) and data to make better operational decisions, simplify their business, improve speed to market and increase market share.

I think it's a matter of mindset at this point, and not necessarily an issue of company size. Is there an appetite to compete using data analysis? Is there investment in people, time and technology behind the "talk"? Do they really want to understand more about their customers?

These two trends discussed above are exponential and they aren't going away. Will companies ride the wave or be drowned by it?

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.27.07

Claire, I agree that data alone is irrelevant. Information alone is irrelevent. It's what you actually DO with the data and information, using it to improve your business operations and get closer to customers--that's what counts.

There are systems and technologies available to help companies sort through the data deluge and find those "pearls of wisdom".

The marketing organization of the future, will assemble the right people (both analytical and creative) to analyze and interpret the information, the right processes, and the right technology infrastructure to manage and disseminate the data/information to appropriate decision makers so they can make better business decisions. It's going to be an exciting five years!

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.27.07

Wow, you ask big questions. As you noted, people have a really, really hard time predicting the future. I would add that those who do are often wrong.

How can we prepare for the unknown? That is a tough one.

Posted by: Neil Anuskiewicz | 11.27.07

@Paul, you said -
"With the global credit crunch and possible recession looming in the US, some companies may choose to table investments in people (hiring), improved processes, and newer information technologies. Each company will have to make that choice."

I guess. But I thought I'd point you towards this CNN money interview with Greg Joswiak, product dude at Apple.

From the article: "We made some courageous decisions back when the market had gotten pretty tough for tech companies, back in 2000 and 2001. And I always like to think about the success that we’re having now, much of it goes back to decisions we made then."

The article's on a tangent from your post, but it's a good 5 minute read anyway.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/yplj4v

Posted by: Martinjy | 11.27.07

Martin, thanks for sharing that article. It's very appropriate. Apple is a good example of a company placing the right bets at the right times, although even they get it wrong once in awhile (Cube, Newton etc).

Your point however, is well taken. While others may pull back investments, this might be a golden opportunity to lay the foundation for analytics--to dominate the next five years.

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.27.07

Neil, you asked, "how can we prepare for the unknown"?

One idea to prepare for the future is to hire the best and brightest minds you possibly can, and then do everything possible to retain them. Sounds like commmon sense, but...

When there is an open "req" or slot in a company, oftentimes there is a sense of urgency to fill it as soon as possible. I'm not sure companies can afford that mantra any longer.

The marketing organization of the future will need analytical, creative, and business focused talent to drive it forward. Many decisions will still not be automated in the near future and need human direction and support. Having the best and brightest people possible to make decisions based on the appropriate data will be a strategy for preparing for the unknown.

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 11.28.07

Agreed, Paul, well said.

Also, I thought about it some more, though we cannot predict the future we must think about it and plan with the best information we have. There is really no alternative.

Posted by: Neil Anuskiewicz | 11.28.07

paul,thank u for the analysis of the future of marketing as driven by tech.this is my first time on the platform and i am really impressed.but paul, i need to know what technology you are really talking about that will drive this marketing vehicle you are talking about.thank u

Posted by: osazee ekhator | 12.01.07

Osazee, thank for reading this post and participating in the discussion. For the associated technologies involved in preparing for the future, I'll refer you to a previous post:

http://www.mpdailyfix.com/2007/10/the_impact_of_moores_law_on_ma.html

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 12.01.07

Information overload! The information has been around forever, how we store it has changed, and our need to compile it has grown, only to be treated like excess fat. We collect it on our mega drives never to look at it again. For everything we read, the content came from a wealth of data we don't have time to consume, but we store it anyhow for the few that might make use of it.
When we market we choose data that tells our customer what they need to know, nothing more, If we feed them to much we loose them, and our sales falter. I believe that no matter how much info is out there, the only thing that might change, is how we present ourselves, and how we can condense what we know so we can appeal to our audience.

Posted by: Kevin | 12.01.07

Kevin, you highlight the need to pay attention to the real and insightful information from the noise of too much data.

This is a challenge for many companies. Fortunately there are tools, techniques, data warehouses and applications to help companies sort through myriad sources of data, cleanse, secure, govern and transform that data, into useful information that drives the business.

When it comes to competing with analytics, the next five years will separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 12.02.07

As an educator and a consultant I have noticed an ever increasing gap between the amount of information that is available and the ability of marketers to interpret it. There is a major difference between information and knowledge. There is a major difference between description and prescription. The problem of seeing the forest through the trees is likely to compound unless are ability to interpret information keeps pace with our ability to acquire it. In the sea of information that is available it is all too easy to error by acting on a piece of the puzzle rather than the implications of all of it. More importantly, it is all too easy to pluck some information to further one's agenda rather than to objectively assess the situation. Finally, we also need to remember that excessive dependence on information can lead managers to react rather than proactively anticipate the future and lead customers into it.

Posted by: William Baker | 12.03.07

Bill, you raise some good points.

There was a time, not long ago when many companies wrestled with gigabytes of data as opposed to terabytes. We're soon going to enter the petabyte era (in the data warehouse) for many global companies.

It's important, as you note, to act on the whole picture as opposed to partial information. Many companies are realizing the value of integrated data, across the enterprise, works best when stored in a single repository. This way everyone in the enterprise is working from the same data sets--enabling better analysis and decision making. Working with the same data sets ensures there are not "multiple versions of the truth". Conclusions may differ, but at least there's no confusion about whose data is more accurate!

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 12.03.07

The convergence of technology is one driving point and one that will challenge marketers as we attempt to harness the power of it. We also must filter what is relevant vs. trendy. Another thing to consider is how marketing is playing a more significant role across other functional areas, such as HR. Technology advances can help facilitate this.

Posted by: Dawn Mueller | 12.04.07

Money quote, Paul:
"When it comes to competing with analytics, the next five years will separate the contenders from the pretenders."

I think you are right.

Posted by: Neil Anuskiewicz | 12.04.07

Post a comment

Most Active Posts

Login to Daily Fix  |  Contact the Editor  |  RSS/XML  |  Advertising

 

Copyright 2008 © Marketing Profs, LLC   |  User Agreement  |  Privacy  |  XML Site Map