I agree hard data is what they need. Haven't these people read "The Millionaire Next Store?"
http://www.amazon.com/Millionaire-Next-Door-Thomas-Stanley/dp/0671015206/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/103-6506824-8367010?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1189771901&sr=8-2

The book claims (with data to back it) that rich people very often do not look the part. It is posers who go out of their way to look loaded.

For example, the poser drives a fancy car and is in debt to appear rich.

Though, after a glance at their website, the word "prestigious" shows up very quickly in their copy writing indicating to me that they cater to people who are ostentatiously rich.

The manager may well be right in his intuition but they may be ignoring that modestly dressed Google executive, etc., while they fawn over Mr. Howell.

Paul,

Excellent post. The old adage: "you can't judge a book from its cover". . .applies in this case and almost every other.

While we all like to think as marketers that we have good gut instincts, we can't and shouldn't rely on them alone. We really need to do our homework and conduct meaningful research before we determine any strategies for our businesses. Not to do so will get us into trouble.

Neil, thanks for commenting. I've also read the "Millionare Next Door", and it's a terrific book. Interesting to note, most of the multi millionaires profiled in the book are quite frugal and likely wouldn't be staying at the Peninsula Hotel.

Perhaps there is a market segment for "posers"? :)

Ted, I like your idea of doing your homework.

A company can actually do their homework everyday, every hour, and every minute by choosing a data driven approach to their corporate decision making.

It requires having the right people, right technology infrastructure, and right processes to capture, integrate, cleanse, secure, analyze and utilize data throughout the enterprise.

Paul,

Absolutely right. As you pointed out, with the acute competition everybody faces these days, companies have to conduct ongoing research. . .and they'd better put the right people and systems in place to do it. This really isn't an option, is it?

In the book "The Nordstrom Way," the author pointed out that Nordstroms employees quickly learned that the people who walked in to the store in sweats and sneakers were just as likely to be their highest paying customers of the day versus the people who walked in the store in a high-priced suit and tie.

Just goes to show you that you truly can't judget a book by it's cover...

I'll make a shameless pitch for the MarketingProfs B2B seminar in early October, where I'm speaking on decisioning processes (intuition and analytics) and how marketers can use the power of analytics to make better marketing decisions. Hope to see you there!

Paul,

Right, a market segment for posers. I bet there is such a thing. LOL.

But, frankly, you are absolutely correct on them having to do more analysis. They probably don't really know who their best customers are.

Mr. Howell and his wife may throw money around like it is confetti during their occasional stays. The Google exec, who is invisible to the hotel manager, may be the better customer over time. The point is they don't know and should do the work to find out.

While a data-driven approach would certainly supplement thin-slicing, I think you are discounting its value.

The point is that in thin-slicing the hotelier isn't just relying on the bag or the tie. He or she is relying on the way they walk, their behavior as they enter the store, the fit of their suit, and many other facets that together paint a much more complete picture.

Think of it as a neural net with all of these data points as factors. Over time the hotelier becomes quite adept at picking the correct people.

Decision Strategist, thanks for your input to this post.

I really don't discount the power of intuition, nor the experience one has that often drives the intuition. The hotelier who notices the gait of a customer, or the fine stitching of their suit is simply capturing more qualititative data points.

I'm suggesting that the hotelier is missing arguably half the picture by using his or her eyes to formulate a picture of the customer. A data driven approach would complete the picture by letting the hotelier know the lifetime value, profitability, affinities etc of his customers. Jim Collins would say, "let the data speak to you."

Again, the Ritz Carlton example is a wonderful blend of intuition and data for better decisioning.

I have say that we did an analysis of our customers. We called it an 80/20 analysis after the somewhat well known concept that about 20% of your customers give you about 80% of your profit.

We found 80/20 to be true for us (not that it would be everyone) and found exactly which segments comprised that best 20%. It was an enlightening exercise and we knew ahead from intuition (based on experience) what some of this 20% would be we did not predict all of it by any means.

I realize that an 80/20 type analysis is not all that needs to be done by any means.

Neil, such a segmentation exercise is critical, as you point out, to understanding who your best customers truly are. Now taking it to the next level, many companies are segmenting and tracking customer profitability and CLV in near real time, or in real time. It's essentially doing the analysis you describe, on an as needed basis-- with analytics.

I'm amazed that the managing director of the Peninsula Beverly Hills thinks it's A-OK to go on the record with such crass, snobbish assessments of his guests. And that a PR handler didn't put the kibosh on this interview the second Mr. Kasikci began using the "skunk spray" metaphor.

Christian, thanks for commenting. Maybe it was the allure of Page 1 in the WSJ that entranced the Peninsula Hotel?

I could see the Peninsula giving the thumbs-up to a story about the special services it offers its best guests -- how its staff selects the right gift for the right guest, accommodates unusual requests, etc.

But there's no way corporate PR approved this angle -- the hotel might very well make these decisions by eyeballing guests, but you don't say so to the WSJ. Clearly, Mr. Kasikci went waaaay off script.

I just did a quick google search and it seems he abruptly resigned from the Peninsula "to explore new opportunities" about a month after this article appeared. I'd be surprised if it's a coincidence.

I agree with your take on this approach, and it looks like the Peninsula might, too...

http://hotellaw.jmbm.com/2007/07/hotel_lawyer_ali_kasikci_hotel.html

I agree, Christian... definitely interesting. I didn't see any reference to the WSJ piece -- oddly! -- and he's landed up the street:

http://www.hotelchatter.com/tag/Ali%20Kasikci

But nice reporting, Gulliksen!

: )

I concur that intuition is a poor substitute for data-driven conclusions. Decision Strategist, however, raises an often ignored but crucial point: this doesn't mean it's not important. I have never seen data in any organization that is not imperfect and incomplete, and many have difficulty discerning between correlation and causation. Too often we are so obsessed with the sanctity of our imperfect data that we ignore powerful insights that aren't embodied there. The best targeting brings all of our tools together, revealing a more nuanced view than any single tool alone.

Lorre, thank you for commenting. I hope you can attend the MarketingProfs B2B seminar where I'll discuss decision making processes such as intuition, analytics, and an approach I call "the hybrid" --a careful blend of the two.

I'll talk about the benefits of such a hybrid approach and ten steps to creating a marketing center of excellence (COE) that takes advantage of the power of intuition and experience AND data based decisioning!

"Spotting the Prada" is a good tactic if you properly view the data. Designer labels do not necessarily signal a more lucrative target -- but they more likely signal a status-conscious one. The key is assessing people not by appearance, but by behavior and their choice of labels does provide a signal as to their persona.

So I think the tactic has promise but the interpretation was suspect.

Enjoyed the article. Respect for all customers should be the policy for any business that purports luxury and a quality experience. But who is Mr. Rivera? He is not properly identified here.

Laura, good catch. It's actually Mr. Kasicki.

Thin slicing in the absence of context and culture is especially risky. In Hawaii, the business atmosphere is very casual and very Japanese, and even transplants quickly adapt to this culture. Most of my consulting clients are very wealthy business owners, investors or retired executives. Generally the only tipoff might be a Rolex or a luxury car, easily acquired by middle class customers, otherwise they dress casually, dont put on "airs",which is declasse' locally, and are very polite and non-confrontational and dont act in a manner that is overtly demanding. Only when you begin to work or interact socially with them do you start to recognize that this is an accomplished and affluent individual.I have often meet someone and found out later they are worth $100 million or more. One of my best clients was worth over $200 million and the only tip was a gold Rolex. Otherwise, he wore shorts, a Polo brand shirt and sneakers. He had come from poor roots and built a bunch of businesses, invested in real estate etc.The idea of dressing and acting "rich" had very negative connotations to him based on the type of arrogant rich visitors he had driven around in his early days of business. He often went to Las Vegas and enjoyed "blowing" away the arrogant front desk people who would initially look through him...until they found out he had been flown there by Steve Wynn's jet etc.

Many visitors who come to HI also adapt to the context. I have seen many Hollywood types dressed very casully and hanging out in everyday places just trying to meld into the fabric of life like the locals. The one tip is they shop differently and order much better room service meals!

The hospitality and retail industries are very plugged into that and try to train their people to work with the customer for some period of time to see what the relationship yields, how it develops etc. The smart salespeople learn to initiate, build and mine relationships that way. I had one client who had a salesperson who was making solid 6 figures annually in commissions, actually more than a number of executives in the firm, because she had honed this to an art. She related to me that her best customer was a very wealthy local man who liked to buy jewelry as gifts for people who did favors for him...his real estate agents etc. He would literally call her, ask her to pick something in a range for a male or female and bill him. He did this frequently...yet as she described him he wore a basic watch, no jewelry and drove a low end BMW. She however knew how much he spent etc.....

Excellent Article - Inaccurate Title

Paul's article had nothing to do with "Intuition" and everything to do with "Snap Judgments."

His examples clearly showed the perils of snap judgments.

Intuition produces bodily reactions such as muscle strength vs. weakness, feeling well vs. sickly, calm vs. agitation, feeling right vs. feeling wrong, etc..

Intuition is useful for Go vs. NoGo decisions when the data seems right but the feelings are wrong.

Excellent Article - Inaccurate Title

Paul's article had nothing to do with "Intuition" and everything to do with "Snap Judgments."

His examples clearly showed the perils of snap judgments.

Intuition produces bodily reactions such as muscle strength vs. weakness, feeling well vs. sickly, calm vs. agitation, feeling right vs. feeling wrong, etc..

Intuition is useful for Go vs. NoGo decisions when the data seems right but the feelings are wrong.

Excellent Article - Inaccurate Title

Paul's article had nothing to do with "Intuition" and everything to do with "Snap Judgments."

His examples clearly showed the perils of snap judgments.

Intuition produces bodily reactions such as muscle strength vs. weakness, feeling well vs. sickly, calm vs. agitation, feeling right vs. feeling wrong, etc..

Intuition is useful for Go vs. NoGo decisions when the data seems right but the feelings are wrong.

Wade, thank you for commenting. Your illustrious examples show how wrong we can be when we size up people based on what they wear, drive, or other physical trappings.

I have no issues with using intuition and experience to help formulate a decision. I think a more complete method, however, would be to complement that decisioning process with a data based approach.

Jacques, thank you for taking the time to comment.

Regarding intuition vs. snap judgments, I've found many definitions where intuition is "instinctive knowing","gut feeling", "hunch", etc. In many cases, as you described, intuition can produce a "I've been here before" feeling, and the accompanying physical reactions.

Jaques,

I think the title of this post fit well.

Here is what Webster has to say about intuition:

Etymology: Middle English intuycyon, from Late Latin intuition-, intuitio act of contemplating, from Latin intuEri to look at, contemplate, from in- + tuEri to look at
1 : quick and ready insight
2 a : immediate apprehension or cognition b : knowledge or conviction gained by intuition c : the power or faculty of attaining to direct knowledge or cognition without evident rational thought and inference