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Ted Mininni Ted Mininni   Bio
07.26.07

Coffee Wars Brewing

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Consumers and investors alike know the power of the humble little coffee bean. Coffee has always been a popular beverage choice in this country, and the demand for premium and specialty coffees has spurred tremendous volume growth in the past two decades. No business capitalized on the hot coffee trend more effectively than Starbucks.

Founder and Chairman Howard Schultz and his management team truly made their coffee shops America’s Third Place. Yet, in spite of Starbucks’ volume and rapid expansion, the company’s competitors have not remained idle.

In a Business Week article recently, Archrivals Storm Starbucks, author Aaron Pressman points to McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts and Canadian brand Tim Horton’s as the three chief competitors that are making inroads on Starbucks’ business.

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Of the three Starbucks competitors discussed in the article, McDonald’s is surprisingly cited as the most viable threat. McDonald’s has acknowledged that its breakfast business has surged, and the company credited its new coffee line—Newman’s Organic Coffee—as the chief reason for this. The article also reports that “Mickey D’s java won a Consumer Reports blind taste test against Starbucks and other brands in February”.

Regardless, Starbucks has always had competition—to a lesser or greater degree--in all of its markets. The question is: how will a great company rise to meet these challenges? For some time now, there has been a sniff of brewing problems along with wonderful coffee in the Starbuckian atmosphere. . .

Here are the signs of trouble, according to BW:
• 2007 is shaping up to be Starbucks’ third straight year of declining growth.
• Second quarter: Starbucks reported U.S. stores’ foot traffic failed to grow for the first time in company history.
• Starbucks stock has dropped almost 30% since late last fall.
• The company propped up earnings-per-share growth by buying back 18 million shares of stock, to the tune of about $600 million in the first six months of the year.
• Michael Casey, Starbucks CFO, stated that the company is finding it “very challenging in the current environment” to meet its earnings forecast in 2007.
• Starbucks CFO has also said the company has reduced its ambitious new store opening plan to about 1,700 new locations for the next few years.
• Wall Street has reacted to Starbucks’ challenges: Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank upgraded McDonald’s ratings, while downgrading Starbucks. “The coffeehouse icon is facing a new world order”, according to a report filed by Deutsche Bank’s beverage analysts.
• Mutual fund investors have been unloading Starbucks shares, including Fidelity Contrafund and American Funds Growth Fund of America, which have both been strong performing growth funds.

So what does this all translate to? The largest, most solid companies experience their share of ups and downs, missteps and increased competition. But the truly great companies—with the truly great brands—find a way to overcome their difficulties and reposition themselves with an even stronger brand in the marketplace.

Can Starbucks overcome their present challenges and regroup? You bet. Will they? It’s up to Mr. Schultz and company. “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”



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Comments

Ted,

As I am a former partner at Starbucks, you know my love for the company. However, the executive team is far different today (Casey was the CFO when I was there and Schultz still sits at the top). I, too, wonder if Starbucks has forgotten its story.

The brand grew not only because of its coffee--any company can source, grind and brew great coffee. It grew because of its story, which centered on people more than it did on coffee.

Have the white shirts in Seattle forgotten? I don't know. But in the past year, the news has not been good from either inside or outside Starbucks.

Posted by: Lewis Green | 07.26.07

Too big, too fast and the culture, "what makes this place special" gets lost.

With Starbucks I think we're seeing a watered down culture, loads of competition in a very profitable segment (creating viable alternatives), which is causing reduced margins, demoralized employees and defecting customers.

I know Bucks management is attempting to refocus, although I think they need a new "big idea". I hope they're working on it.

Posted by: Paul Barsch | 07.26.07

Ted,
From purely a consumer standpoint, value outweighs the upscale snotty atmosphere I've experienced the few times I've been to Starbucks.
Additionally, while traveling through Ohio, the coffee wizards behind the counter spoke little better than broken english. Perhaps the Seattle brass should meet me @ 7-11 one my way to work as I pick up my $1.55 large cup of fusion.

Posted by: Scott | 07.26.07

Thanks for your perspective, Lewis. You have unique insights having been a Starbucks corporate marketer. This is what happens when companies venture away from the things that make their brands strong and uniquely differentiated. Let's hope Starbucks gets it together, and soon.

Posted by: Ted Mininni | 07.26.07

Paul,

You are so right. You may recall that I wrote a post at the end of February concerning the Schultz memo that leaked to bloggers concerning the warning signs that Starbucks was losing the very elements that made its brand such a powerhouse.

For readers who may wish to see that post, please go to:
http://www.mpdailyfix.com/2007/02/starbucks_to_refocus_on_custom.html.

As Mr. Schultz stated to management back in February, competitors have seized on Starbucks' problems as the company expanded so quickly, and it was time to get back to those things that made the Starbucks brand so successful in the past.

What do you think of Starbucks raising its prices yet again in view of its current difficulties, Paul? Just happened this week. . .

Posted by: Ted Mininni | 07.26.07

Scott,

Many consumers feel as you do. In the same BW article I cited in this post, it was reported that in Needham, Massachusetts, an affluent Boston suburb, lines are out the door in the AM at Dunkin' Donuts and McDonalds for coffee while the Starbucks outlets located near the commuter rail are virtually empty. If that isn't a sign there's an image problem, I don't know what is.

Posted by: Ted Mininni | 07.26.07

Ted,

It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out. In fact, I think Starbucks history, meteoric rise, present problems and future response to its issues (either good or bad) are the fodder for a great case study.

Thanks for tracking this developing business story.

Posted by: Claire Ratushny | 07.26.07

I don't know if there is a correllation between the greater emphasis on signing on new music acts for CD distribution and the company's declining fortunes. But you've got to wonder whether "third place" and "SBUX as a consumer brand" has replaced "great coffee" as the focus.

Further, their success has given birth to indi hyper-premium players on the street corners and has emboldened mass players like McD's. (Great move leveraging Newman's brand, too).

They have a tough road ahead of them. Their success is their biggest weakness at this point.

Posted by: Stephen Denny | 07.26.07

Over at BrandingWire.com (in June), a bunch of us addressed how a company can compete in the coffee marketplace. There is plenty of room for smaller entities to take on Starbuck, McDonalds, and any other "Big Coffees", and win with a focused strategy!

Posted by: Steve Woodruff | 07.27.07

Thanks, Claire, for mentioning this. I have been tracking the Starbucks story with a number of posts over the past few months. It is a fascinating, unfolding case study.

Stephen, you are so right. Part of the gist of Schultz's memo to his top management cited the need to get back to making great coffee drinks while romancing the customer. The music deals and other side shows have likely become distractions.

McDonald's deal with Green Mountain Roasters' Newman Organic coffees has really paid off. Have you heard about McD's spin-off of McCafes in Japan? If not, check it out. This is obviously being tested with a view to possible expansion. Now wouldn't that give SBUX an additional run for its money?

Posted by: Ted Mininni | 07.27.07

Great observation, Steve. In just about any product or service category we can name, there is a huge amount of competition--and commoditization, as a result. Having said that, there are always opportunities for new businesses to be successful in spite of it. The trick is to be able to find a unique, differentiating niche. We'll have to check out your blog and the comments there. Thanks for weighing in.

Posted by: Ted Mininni | 07.27.07

I wonder if Stephen might have a point. Sometimes I feel as though Starbucks is trying to re-brand themselves as a music store that sells coffee.

I'm being slightly facetious, of course, but I do feel like some of the publicity surrounding their music business has taken the focus away from their coffee. No one has forgotten that Starbucks is a coffee place, of course, but I wonder if the expansion into the music business hasn't hurt the brand some what (even if it's only a temporary growing pain).

Posted by: Adam Snider | 08.02.07

As an avid coffee drinker I find all of this very interesting. I prefer a plain cup of coffee with sugar and cream...I usually brew my own at home using freshly ground beans. The pomp and circumstance that surrounds ordering a cup at Starbucks has turned me off the brand from the very beginning. On the same note, all those "extras" are probably what draw a lot of folks in.

I think Starbucks seems to be complacent with their position in the coffee industry. I don't see much quality control. As I stated I drink coffee every day and I never step foot in Starbucks. I can make burnt, bitter-tasting coffee at home if that's what I'm looking for.

I'm honestly glad to see some other companies giving them a run for their money. Maybe then they will reevaluate their policies/products.

Posted by: Ryan | 08.02.07

Ted,

I find it interesting that the major two competitors mentioned are companies that are best known for donuts and hamburgers.

I wonder if Starbucks saw McDonald's and Dunkin Donuts as legimate threats, and if not, maybe Starbucks doesn't fully understand its value proposition to at least some part of its target audience.

On another note, McDonald's should get some kudos for recognizing the opportunity with coffee and breakfast. (e.g. they are trying to get their franchisees to open their stores an hour earlier.)

Posted by: Tim Bay | 08.02.07

Good point, Adam. CEO Schultz himself admitted in the famous February 2007 memo to management that the company had lost some of its focus on romanticizing the coffee experience for Starbucks patrons.

Ryan, many people feel as you do. And those who do, either brew their own coffee or buy from shops other than Starbucks. There is definitely a perception out there that some Starbucks shops' baristas appear snotty or unapproachable. Doesn't help when folks are plunking down $3.50+ for a java brew, does it?

Posted by: Ted Mininni | 08.02.07

Tim,

Thanks for weighing in with some nice insights.

While Dunkin' Donuts may have been perceived by some as being a donut shop, legions of fans have always favored the chain's coffee. In fact, coffee sales have really driven the growth at DD.

You're right: McDonald's saw a great opportunity to grow its breakfast business. With the fast food giant's experiment with McCafes in Japan, can a major push with coffee shops in the U.S. be far behind?

Posted by: Ted Mininni | 08.02.07

"While Dunkin' Donuts may have been perceived by some as being a donut shop, legions of fans have always favored the chain's coffee."

That's funny...as a consumer, I haven't thought of Dunkin' Donuts as a donut shop for years. I think of it as a coffee shop that also serves breakfast sandwiches... ordering a donut doesn't even enter my mind. :)

Posted by: Linda Stranger | 08.06.07

OK, I have to admit that I might darken a Starbucks doorstep once or twice a year. Seriously, I don't like their coffee. But McDonalds and Dunkin Donuts are their major rivals???

Maybe McDonalds in terms of sheer volumn of coffee sold, but you're more likely to spy me in a Starbucks. I could perhaps agree to Dunkin Donuts if I could FIND a Dunkin Donuts shop anywhere. They certainly aren't in my neighborhood.

However I am shocked at the company that isn't mentioned -- Caribou Coffee. Is it just not in enough cities? Caribou makes great coffee, their stores have a great ambience -- friendly and cozy, complete with pleather reading chairs).

Did I mention Caribou makes great coffee? That's why I've been going back almost every day for the past two years. One of those pleather chairs has my name on it. Caribou.

Posted by: Gina | 08.07.07

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