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If you haven't heard of the "Snakes on a Plane" movie phenomenon (SoaP), then there is not much use consuming this post this late in the game....
A movie that innocently enough generated buzz due to scriptwriter Josh Friedman's blog, has evolved into the Rocky Horror Show of our times, aided in no small measure by a raving blogosphere.
As many of us know "SoaP is currently exhibit A in the chaotic debate over viral marketing, an advertising approach that, when it works, publicizes a product contagiously through word of mouth" (via SFGate). Many of our fellow marketing bloggers at the Viral Garden, Church of the Customer & Movie Marketing Madness have given it in-depth coverage over the past months.
The movie releases this weekend (August 18) and I bet some of us are expecting a huge opening. Here's why I think SoaP won't make more than $40 million on its opening weekend:
Not because the producers haven't screened the movie for critics, not because the film is admittedly cheesy (Early AICN Review), not because the movie's plot was continuously modified by the viewers.... but for the simple reason that the "Active" Blogosphere is not large enough to ensure a blockbuster opening!
The keyword here is that SoaP is a Blogosphere Phenomenon. Even though David Sifry of Technorati makes the specious argument that there are 50 million blogs, I bet he's counting two of my defunct blogs as well as my sole active Marketing Nirvana Blog.
For purposes of calculation, I'd like to refer to a much more rational analysis that there are probably 6.4 million "active" bloggers out there (via Kevin Burton at TailRank). Ignoring the fact that these numbers constitute all blogs globally and also the fact that many of them may not be SoaP fans, let's assume that if 50% of these active bloggers watch the movie, there's roughly $32 million to be made on opening weekend and that's how I think it's going to play out.
On the flipside; SoaP has zero expectations to contend with. As Chuck Klosterman from Esquire reminds us, people do not expect "The Godfather" but rather Anaconda v2.0. Even the aforementioned mind-numbing snake-flick "Anaconda" made 65 million during its entire run. Add in the crazed blogosphere and I believe SoaP will cross the $100 million during its entire run, which by industry standards would still be deemed a success for a movie that cost around $30 million to make.
As a marketer, what are your thoughts on the movie marketing magic of SoaP? Will SoaP make more than $50 million on opening weekend? Are you going to watch SoaP?
Weigh in with your comments.
Technorati tags: movie marketing SoaP
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Comments
Mario I agree that I find it hard to imagine 50 million active blogs out there. But at the same time, bloggers are extremely passionate about an idea that they get behind.
So I think we could see an opening weekend of anywhere from $5-50 million for SoaP. Of course the interesting story will be if SoaP hits at least $30 million this weekend and breaks even, how will the mainstream media spin it next week? Since they are NOT pleased that this movie's buzz originated online, I wouldn't be suprised if they credited another source with the movie's strong opening.
Posted by: Mack Collier | 08.15.06
Mack,
I believe it'll definitely break even over the course of its entire run. However, what SoaP has shown is a brave-new-way for movie marketers to cater to their target audience.
For ex. a case in point will have to be the unspoken success of "Step-Up" that released last week to open at 2nd spot. Why do you think it did so well?: Myspace and marketing-to-the-choir.
Times have changed and movie marketing is never going to be the same again.
Mario
Posted by: Mario Sundar | 08.15.06
Mario, how does a "Tipping Point" model figure into your estimation? That is to say, some bloggers might have a sphere of influence beyond the addressable market of the blogosphere. Some of them might even be of "Paul Revere quality" to pick up on Gladwell's illustration. Could they rally an unexpected non-blogging segment of the market to see the movie?
Just thinking out loud.
Fun to muse on.
Posted by: Michael Wagner | 08.15.06
Michael,
Good point. Particularly since the target demographic is predominantly male - 15 to 25.
Maybe the opening weekend will be bigger than I envision, and I guess that'll be proof that the "tipping point" was reached.
Posted by: Mario Sundar | 08.16.06
If it doesn't make a splash, it won't be for lack of buzz.
My oldest sister is in her mid-50s and lives in Florida. She does email and knows her way around the Internet, sort of, but I wouldn't describe her as blog-savvy. Yet earlier today, she sent me a "You've Got Snakes"! viral email....WOW. I'd expect it from Mack or you, Mario...but the fact that the word reached my sister in central Florida. That's impressive....
Posted by: Ann Handley | 08.16.06
Wow! That's interesting...
Maybe, what Michael said is happening, and if SoaP is reaching out beyond (what I presumed would be the male MySpace target audience), all the better.
Important question: Has the viral email convinced her to watch the movie?
Mario
Posted by: Mario Sundar | 08.16.06
I dunno...I'll have to ask her. But she was all pumped up about the viral email -- so it's definitely on her radar. And that's exactly it, Mario....she is *not* the typical demographic.
So tonight, just for fun, I asked my 14-year-old son if he had heard of SoaP, and his sole comment was, "Yeah, of course. But I hate the logo, so I don't want to see it."
Right. But he *knew* the logo...so it's on his radar, too.
So -- 14-year-old boys in New England to 50-year-old women in Florida. That's pretty amazing reach. The test will be...who will go see it?
Posted by: Ann Handley | 08.16.06